Real Story Behind Rate Volatility; Slower Forbearance Improvement; Origination Forecast

It was easy to get lulled into complacency by the second half of 2020 when it came to mortgage rates. Even as other indicators said rates should be rising, they continued on a calm journey to multiple record lows. 2021 has been very different so far! Covid and its impacts on the economy remain the driving forces behind market trends. That’s generally been great for rates, but it also means that rates should gradually rise as we battle back against covid. If the onset of the pandemic pushed rates to all-time lows, it’s only fair that progress against the pandemic would result in rates moving up from all-time lows. If you ask 10yr Treasury yields, that’s been the case for quite a while. And while the stock market has been singing a similar tune, the mortgage market has been in its own glorious
Real Story Behind Rate Volatility; Slower Forbearance Improvement; Origination Forecast
Real Story Behind Rate Volatility; Slower Forbearance Improvement; Origination Forecast

MBS RECAP: Big Victory This Week (In Response To Last Week's Big Loss)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Big Victory This Week (In Response To Last Week's Big Loss) Relative to the spectrum of possibilities, ending the week with 10yr Treasury yields under 1.1% is a big victory. Of course that wouldn't have been the case before last week, but everything's relative in the bond market. From here, we'll be watching this week's high yields very carefully for continued support. If rates are going to surge back below 1.0%, the justification for such a thing has yet to reveal itself. Next week is light on data, and bonds are closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Retail Sales -0.7 vs 0.0 f'cast, -1.4 prev Core Annual PPI 1.2 vs 1.3 f'cast, 1.4 prev NY Fed Manufacturing 3.5 vs 6.0 f'cast…(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Big Victory This Week (In Response To Last Week's Big Loss)
MBS RECAP: Big Victory This Week (In Response To Last Week's Big Loss)

The Real Story Behind The Past 2 Weeks of Mortgage Rate Volatility

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

It was easy to get lulled into complacency by the second half of 2020 when it came to mortgage rates. Even as other indicators said rates should be rising, they continued on a calm journey to multiple record lows. 2021 has been very different so far! Covid and its impacts on the economy remain the driving forces behind market trends. That’s generally been great for rates, but it also means that rates should gradually rise as we battle back against covid. If the onset of the pandemic pushed rates to all-time lows, it’s only fair that progress against the pandemic would result in rates moving up from all-time lows. If you ask 10yr Treasury yields, that’s been the case for quite a while. And while the stock market has been singing a similar tune, the mortgage market has been in its own glorious…(read more)

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The Real Story Behind The Past 2 Weeks of Mortgage Rate Volatility
The Real Story Behind The Past 2 Weeks of Mortgage Rate Volatility

The Bond Report – 2pm – January 15, 2021

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The Bond Report – 2pm – January 15, 2021
The Bond Report – 2pm – January 15, 2021

Bidding for homes unseen, the new phenomenon

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Daryl Fairweather, Redfin chief economist, discusses the phenomenon of people buying homes sight unseen and what that means for the market.

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Bidding for homes unseen, the new phenomenon
Bidding for homes unseen, the new phenomenon

Boston Fed's Rosengren: Biden stimulus a big package but I think it's appropriate

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CNBC's Steve Liesman talks to Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who believes President-elect Joe Biden's economic stimulus plan is the appropriate action for this time.

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Boston Fed's Rosengren: Biden stimulus a big package but I think it's appropriate
Boston Fed's Rosengren: Biden stimulus a big package but I think it's appropriate

The Bond Report – 9am – January 15, 2021

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The Bond Report – 9am – January 15, 2021
The Bond Report – 9am – January 15, 2021

Improvements in Forbearance Continue to Slow

Posted To: MND NewsWire

A decline in the number of forborne loans in those portfolios serviced for banks and private label securities (PLS) accounted for most of the modest downturn in overall numbers last week. Black Knight said the number of active plans dropped by 9,000 loans or 0.3 percent compared to the previous week. The the total of active plans is only 1.5 percent below where it was in December, continuing a recent trend of slowing improvement . “This further sets the stage for a great many plans to still be active when the first wave of forbearance plans begin to expire at the end of March, the Black Knight report says.” Loans serviced for bank portfolios and private label securities (PLS) declined by 13,000 loans. This was partially offset by a 4,000-loan rise in FHA and VA loans. The number of forbearances…(read more)

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Improvements in Forbearance Continue to Slow
Improvements in Forbearance Continue to Slow

First Quarter Projections: Steady as They Go

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Freddie Mac’s first quarter 2021 economic forecast is unusually short, and, unlike recent forecasts from either of the GSEs, has relatively few revisions. The company’s economists say that nearly a year after the first cases of COVID-19 were diagnosed in the U.S., economic growth remains uncertain, with answers largely hinging on the roll-out of the new vaccines. The labor market remains weak with close to 20 million collecting unemployment insurance. December’s job losses, the first since last April, didn’t change the unemployment rate from 6.7 percent because labor participation also declined. Record low mortgage rates continued to carry the housing market during the turmoil of the pandemic. At the end of the first week of 2021, the 30-year rate hit 2.65 percent, a new low. Freddie Mac expects…(read more)

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First Quarter Projections: Steady as They Go
First Quarter Projections: Steady as They Go

Post-2008 Standardized Practices Have Helped Manage Forbearances

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Fannie Mae said that the standardization of servicing standards that followed the 2008 housing crisis appears to have helped the industry manage the recent flood of COVID-19 forbearance plans. The company included a series of questions about forbearance management in its September Lender Sentiment Survey and has now released a special report on the responses. Servicers had to move quickly to implement the forbearance programs, which were first announced by the GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and by FHA but were then expanded and mandated by Congress under the CARES Act. They also had to manage the loans in forbearance, continue remittances to investors, and make insurance and tax payments out of escrow accounts. As the plans had three-month terms, borrowers had to be contacted to do renewals…(read more)

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Post-2008 Standardized Practices Have Helped Manage Forbearances
Post-2008 Standardized Practices Have Helped Manage Forbearances