The 3pm Bond Report – September 23, 2021

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The 3pm Bond Report – September 23, 2021
The 3pm Bond Report – September 23, 2021

First-Time Buyer Share Slips; Underwater Owners Bailed Out by Equity Surge; Rates are MUCH Higher

Existing home sales ended two months of gains in August, falling 2.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous month. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said preowned single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and cooperative apartments sold at an annual rate of 5.88 million units during the month compared to 6.00 million in July. Sales were 1.5 percent lower on an annual basis. The dip was expected, and sales came in only slightly under the levels predicted by Econoday and Trading Economics. Their respective consensus estimates were 5.90 and 5.89 million. Single-family home sales decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.19 million in August, down 1.9 percent from 5.29 million in July and 2.8 percent fewer than the rate in August 2020. Condominiums
First-Time Buyer Share Slips; Underwater Owners Bailed Out by Equity Surge; Rates are MUCH Higher
First-Time Buyer Share Slips; Underwater Owners Bailed Out by Equity Surge; Rates are MUCH Higher

Underwater Homeowners Effectively Bailed-Out By Equity Surge

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Homeowner equity grew $2.9 trillion nationwide from the second quarter of 2020 to the same quarter this year. CoreLogic’s Homeowner Equity Report shows U.S. homeowners who have mortgages (which account for roughly 63 percent of all residential properties) saw their equity increase by 29.3 percent over that period, an average borrower gain of $51,500. With over 1.5 million homeowners in forbearance and 5 million consumers unemployed, current equity figures have added import. A recent CoreLogic survey found 59 percent of respondents feel extremely confident in their ability to keep current on their mortgage payments in the coming year. CoreLogic says, “Thanks to ongoing government provisions, increased vaccine availability – enabling many to return to work and a steady income – and record homeowner…(read more)

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Underwater Homeowners Effectively Bailed-Out By Equity Surge
Underwater Homeowners Effectively Bailed-Out By Equity Surge

Foreclosure Starts Rise Following Moratorium Expiration

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Delinquencies hit a new post-pandemic low in August as the national delinquency rate fell by 84,000 loans or 3.48 percent compared to July. It was 41.84 percent below the level in August of 2020. Black Knight, in its “first look” at the months loan performance data, said the 1.122 million loans that were 30 or more days past due but not in foreclosure, were down by 1.557 million on an annual basis. In January of 2020, one month before the first cases of COVID-19 were reported, the national delinquency rate was 3.3 percent. Serious delinquencies , those loans 90 or more days past due but not in foreclosure, remain elevated, but even they have been improving steadily. Serious delinquencies fell 108,000 from July and are down more than 1 million from the level in August 2020. Still, 1.339 million…(read more)

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Foreclosure Starts Rise Following Moratorium Expiration
Foreclosure Starts Rise Following Moratorium Expiration

First-Time Buyer Share Slips as Prices Rise for 114th Month

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Existing home sales ended two months of gains in August, falling 2.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous month. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said preowned single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and cooperative apartments sold at an annual rate of 5.88 million units during the month compared to 6.00 million in July. Sales were 1.5 percent lower on an annual basis. The dip was expected, and sales came in only slightly under the levels predicted by Econoday and Trading Economics. Their respective consensus estimates were 5.90 and 5.89 million. Single-family home sales decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.19 million in August, down 1.9 percent from 5.29 million in July and 2.8 percent fewer than the rate in August 2020. Condominiums…(read more)

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First-Time Buyer Share Slips as Prices Rise for 114th Month
First-Time Buyer Share Slips as Prices Rise for 114th Month

Mortgage Rates Are Actually MUCH Higher This Week

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates jumped substantially higher today as global markets reacted to yesterday’s Fed announcement. But that’s really just scratching the surface. The Fed is a convenient talking point because simply due to timing and the absence of another obvious, singular source of inspiration. It’s entirely possible that the confluence of other factors would be producing a similar result regardless of the Fed. In fact, the bond market is talking about 8-9 separate potential market movers today. Most of them are fairly esoteric. The Fed’s decision to telegraph a tapering announcement in November is one of the simplest topics, but simpler still is the week-over-week drop in covid case counts in the US. Late September was always going to be important in that regard for several reasons. It’s late enough…(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Are Actually MUCH Higher This Week
Mortgage Rates Are Actually MUCH Higher This Week

Evergrande is not China's 'Lehman moment,' Rosenberg says

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David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research president, joins The Exchange to discuss the abatement of the fear that Evergrande's default is China's "Lehman moment."

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Evergrande is not China's 'Lehman moment,' Rosenberg says
Evergrande is not China's 'Lehman moment,' Rosenberg says

How the Fed announcement affects big banks

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Jean-Yves Fillion, CEO of BNP Paribas USA, joins the Halftime Report to discuss his bank, clients and the broader market. "Our main challenge today is to find yield," Fillion tells Scott Wapner.

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How the Fed announcement affects big banks
How the Fed announcement affects big banks

Fed: Net worth of households, nonprofits rose to $141.7T in Q2 2021

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Steve Liesman joins 'The Halftime Report' with news from the Fed on increases in U.S. household net worth and what's driving it up.

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Fed: Net worth of households, nonprofits rose to 1.7T in Q2 2021
Fed: Net worth of households, nonprofits rose to 1.7T in Q2 2021

MBS RECAP: What's Up With Today's Big Sell-Off?

Posted To: MBS Commentary

What's Up With Today's Big Sell-Off? It's not nearly as surprising to see bond yields breaking technical ceilings today as it was to see them bouncing at a technical floor yesterday. By confirming the taper timeline, the Fed effectively stood aside and allowed nature to take its course in the bond market. The most natural trade of the past 1.5 years has been covid. Viewed in that lens, 2021 is extraordinarily simple. Rates spiked quickly with vaccinations as case counts plummeted. Rates moved lower as concern over the delta variant grew. And now that the new school year is well underway and case counts are falling, it's no surprise to see yields confirming a sideways-to-slightly higher trend by breaking up and over 1.37% (10yr yields). Is this the only thing moving markets today…(read more)

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MBS RECAP: What's Up With Today's Big Sell-Off?
MBS RECAP: What's Up With Today's Big Sell-Off?