Younger Generations Plan on Buying More Homes; Rates Back to 3-Month Lows, But Why?

Mortgage rates dropped to begin the holiday-shortened week as markets expressed a bit of panic over the coronavirus outbreak in China. This is similar to the SARS outbreak in 2003, which certainly had an impact on both stocks and bonds. While it’s too soon to know if the new iteration of the disease will run a similar course, it’s not too soon for markets to begin heading in that direction preemptively. Specifically, fears surrounding the outbreak lead investors to expect commerce, in general, to take a hit. Sure, the average person may not change their daily routine because of Coronavirus, but many will (and have). A decrease in the level of commerce implies lower stock prices. Simultaneously, investors can seek safe havens for their money in the sovereign bond market (such as US Treasuries
Younger Generations Plan on Buying More Homes; Rates Back to 3-Month Lows, But Why?
Younger Generations Plan on Buying More Homes; Rates Back to 3-Month Lows, But Why?

Mortgage Rates Back to 3-Month Lows

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates dropped to begin the holiday-shortened week as markets expressed a bit of panic over the coronavirus outbreak in China. This is similar to the SARS outbreak in 2003, which certainly had an impact on both stocks and bonds. While it’s too soon to know if the new iteration of the disease will run a similar course, it’s not too soon for markets to begin heading in that direction preemptively. Specifically, fears surrounding the outbreak lead investors to expect commerce, in general, to take a hit. Sure, the average person may not change their daily routine because of Coronavirus, but many will (and have). A decrease in the level of commerce implies lower stock prices. Simultaneously, investors can seek safe havens for their money in the sovereign bond market (such as US Treasuries…(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Back to 3-Month Lows
Mortgage Rates Back to 3-Month Lows

Gen Z and Millennials Plan on Buying Homes in Larger Numbers

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The share of adults who told the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) they were considering a home purchase in the next year has now fallen year-over-year for the fifth consecutive time. NAHB’s survey for its fourth quarter 2019 Housing Trends Report found only 11 percent of its respondents had such plans, a 2-percentage point drop from the survey a year earlier and less than half the share in the fourth quarter of 2017. Rose Quint, writing in NAHB’s Eye on Housing blog blamed the steady decline in planned participation on the persistent low levels of housing inventory. Offsetting this discouraging news however is data on both the ages of those who are planning on buying and their current homeownership status. Nineteen percent of Millennials (those born between 1981 and 1996) said they…(read more)

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Gen Z and Millennials Plan on Buying Homes in Larger Numbers
Gen Z and Millennials Plan on Buying Homes in Larger Numbers

David Rubenstein: US-China won't have the same economic tensions they had before

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The Carlyle Group Co-CEO David Rubenstein joins CNBC's "Squawk Box" team at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

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David Rubenstein: US-China won't have the same economic tensions they had before
David Rubenstein: US-China won't have the same economic tensions they had before

MBS Week Ahead: Light Data Week Leaves Focus Overseas

Posted To: MBS Commentary

In addition to being a 4-day trading week due to yesterday's holiday, there's also a general lack of big-ticket economic data on tap. In fact, there isn't a single report that qualifies as "top-tier" in terms of market movement potential and the only candidates that come close are the Markit PMIs on Friday. That's unfortunate because the US bond market is desperately in need of some direction after almost half a year of broad consolidation and 1-3 months of intense consolidation. "Broad" and "intense" are subjective terms, so let's quantify them quickly. In the chart below, the broad consolidation isn't highlighted, but it would begin in the first 2 weeks of September, which marked a much smaller jump between highs/lows than the one seen…(read more)

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MBS Week Ahead: Light Data Week Leaves Focus Overseas
MBS Week Ahead: Light Data Week Leaves Focus Overseas

Non-QM, Digital Tools; Population Shifts in Lending; Capital Markets

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Everyone is aging, right? “I finally did it! I bought a new pair of shoes with memory foam insoles. No more forgetting why I walked into the kitchen!” People change, populations change, and loan officers must adapt. economists have revised 2020 growth prospects higher and revised down recession probabilities, many economic indicators are positive: consumer spending and confidence is high, unemployment remains low, and inflation is tame. Not only must every lender pay attention to overhead costs, what competitors are doing, customer service trends, and guideline changes from investors, but they must also pay attention to population shifts, forecasts, and business opportunities. For example, more international trade will expand rental and for-sale housing demand in markets dependent…(read more)

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Non-QM, Digital Tools; Population Shifts in Lending; Capital Markets
Non-QM, Digital Tools; Population Shifts in Lending; Capital Markets

Trump says in Davos speech that he 'could get used to' negative interest rates

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President Donald Trump spoke at the World Economic Forum in Davos about negative interest rates and took another shot at the Federal Reserve to a global audience.

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Trump says in Davos speech that he 'could get used to' negative interest rates
Trump says in Davos speech that he 'could get used to' negative interest rates

Economic growth will hit 3% in 2020, says Trump economic advisor Larry Kudlow

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Larry Kudlow, President Donald Trump's top economic advisor, told "Squawk Box" at the World Economic Forum in Davos that GDP growth in the U.S. should hit at least 3% in 2020.

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Economic growth will hit 3% in 2020, says Trump economic advisor Larry Kudlow
Economic growth will hit 3% in 2020, says Trump economic advisor Larry Kudlow

MBS RECAP: Bonds Cap Extraordinarily Tame Week Despite Excuses

Posted To: MBS Commentary

We've seen a whole lot more movement in the bond market for a whole lot less motivation than we had this week. Back to back econ data shockers (Philly Fed and Housing Starts) were scarcely able to get yields back up to Monday morning's highs, and yields hadn't fallen very much to begin with. In other words: "Housing Starts Surge 40% Annually to The Highest in 13 Years" isn't really a headline that jives with 10yr yields rising less than 2bps by the close of business. Oh, and stocks hit all time highs on 4 out of the 5 days. Oh, and the phase 1 trade deal signing went off without a hitch. All that to say that bonds were more than entitled to end up somewhere other than smack dab in the middle of the consolidation range that's been in effect for close to half a year…(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Cap Extraordinarily Tame Week Despite Excuses
MBS RECAP: Bonds Cap Extraordinarily Tame Week Despite Excuses

Mortgage Rates Off Recent Lows

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates moved slightly higher over the past two days as strong economic data and corporate earnings coaxed investors into riskier assets like stocks. Bonds (which dictate interest rates) are always being bought and sold, but demand varies depending on investors’ risk appetite. If demand for bonds falls as it has in the 2nd half of this week, rates move higher. Fortunately, this move has been very small in the bigger picture. Mortgage rates, specifically, have moved even less than rates associated with other bonds. The average lender is still able to offer 30yr fixed rates of well under 4% on top tier scenarios. And the average borrower wouldn’t see more than 0.00125% of difference from the lowest rates in more than 3 months. Bottom line, while rates are slightly higher than their best…(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Off Recent Lows
Mortgage Rates Off Recent Lows