MBS Day Ahead: No Great Motivation for Gains Amid Empty Calendar and Seasonal Illiquidity

Posted To: MBS Commentary

NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my venue to offer deep thoughts with a mix of big-picture and near-term technical considerations. I'll still be doing that, but in posts on MBS Live and under the 'General Commentary' heading (which still shows up on MND for free, but delayed). The Day Ahead will quickly evolve into a more cut and dried run-down of the events of the day (as it should be). Some days are more interesting than others, so some posts will be almost comically short, depending on the slate of events. It will still contain charts from time to time, but generally just to lay out technical levels we should be watching. — Holiday-themed trading continues , which…(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: No Great Motivation for Gains Amid Empty Calendar and Seasonal Illiquidity
MBS Day Ahead: No Great Motivation for Gains Amid Empty Calendar and Seasonal Illiquidity
Mortgage
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Rates Stay Near Highs Despite Market Improvement; Five Housing Themes in 2017; Survey Shows Rising Rate Fallout

Mortgage rates stayed close to the highest levels in more than 2 years today, even though underlying bond markets left plenty of room for improvement. Typically, when bond markets improve as much as they did today, rates would be noticeably lower. The inconsistency has to do with more conservative lender pricing strategies surrounding the holiday season. Why does this happen? There can be a variety of reasons . At the most basic level, keeping rates higher than they otherwise might be is a way to decrease new business volume. That might not sound like a good thing, but it can be if it keeps customer service optimal during times of decreased staffing levels. On a more esoteric level, it’s hard for lenders to offer their most aggressive rates when bond market participation wanes during the holidays
Rates Stay Near Highs Despite Market Improvement; Five Housing Themes in 2017; Survey Shows Rising Rate Fallout
Rates Stay Near Highs Despite Market Improvement; Five Housing Themes in 2017; Survey Shows Rising Rate Fallout
Mortgage Newsletter
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MBS RECAP: Strong, Uneventful December Monday

Posted To: MBS Commentary

There will definitely be a theme in the recap commentary for the rest of the year: holidays! It's hard to quantify exactly what the holiday season does to financial markets, but most obviously, volume and liquidity wane. As long as no imbalances crop up, that can be a recipe for boring trading. But if the scales are tipped too far in one direction, the movement can be quicker. Today saw a few examples of this phenomenon. Earlier this morning, buyers gained the upper hand on a flurry of short-covering. This helped bonds start the day in stronger territory. Late day strength in European bond markets helped Treasuries and MBS go into the noon hour at the day's best levels. True to most analysts' outlook for today, the only notable event was Yellen's 1:30pm speech . The speech itself…(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Strong, Uneventful December Monday
MBS RECAP: Strong, Uneventful December Monday
Mortgage
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Rates Stay Near Highs Despite Market Improvement

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates stayed close to the highest levels in more than 2 years today, even though underlying bond markets left plenty of room for improvement. Typically, when bond markets improve as much as they did today, rates would be noticeably lower. The inconsistency has to do with more conservative lender pricing strategies surrounding the holiday season. Why does this happen? There can be a variety of reasons . At the most basic level, keeping rates higher than they otherwise might be is a way to decrease new business volume. That might not sound like a good thing, but it can be if it keeps customer service optimal during times of decreased staffing levels. On a more esoteric level, it’s hard for lenders to offer their most aggressive rates when bond market participation wanes during the holidays…(read more)

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Rates Stay Near Highs Despite Market Improvement
Rates Stay Near Highs Despite Market Improvement
Mortgage
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Yellen: U.S. has strongest job market in nearly a decade

[View:http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000577432&__source=mnd|news|video|&par=mnd]

CNBC's Steve Liesman reports the latest Fed speak from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen at the University of Maryland in Baltimore.

…(read more)

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Yellen: U.S. has strongest job market in nearly a decade
Yellen: U.S. has strongest job market in nearly a decade
Mortgage Video News
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Santelli Exchange: The road to rate normalization

[View:http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000577377&__source=mnd|news|video|&par=mnd]

CNBC's Rick Santelli is joined by Jim Caron of Morgan Stanley to discuss what's been missing in the economy and the road to rate normalization.

…(read more)

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Santelli Exchange: The road to rate normalization
Santelli Exchange: The road to rate normalization
Mortgage Video News
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Santelli Exchange: U.S. 10-year note technicals

[View:http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000577222&__source=mnd|news|video|&par=mnd]

CNBC's Rick Santelli asks what does the 2016 10-year yield close mean for 2017?

…(read more)

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Santelli Exchange: U.S. 10-year note technicals
Santelli Exchange: U.S. 10-year note technicals
Mortgage Video News
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Five Features Will Mark 2017 Housing Market

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Tis the season – for hearing from all the experts about what we can expect the coming year to bring. Today it is CoreLogic’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Frank Nothaft’s turn. Nothaft, writing in the company’s December MarketPulse magazine, says economic growth will be key for the housing market in 2017 and projects that growth will be between 2 and 2.5 percent. Along with that growth he expects we will see five features. 1. Interest rates will be higher . He is looking for fixed rates to average just over 4 percent for the year for both single- and multi-family loans. The Federal Reserve’s rate hike last week and the three additional increases they have projected for next year will increase the cost of loans tied to short term rates such as home equity lines or HELOCs. 2. Vacancy…(read more)

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Five Features Will Mark 2017 Housing Market
Five Features Will Mark 2017 Housing Market
Mortgage
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Fannie Lender Sentiment Survey Points to Rising Rate Fallout

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Post-election interest rate changes have considerably dampened mortgage lenders’ expectations for mortgage demand. Fannie Mae’s fourth quarter Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey showed the net share of lenders expecting demand to increase over the next three months was at or near survey lows regardless of loan types. The top reason for worsening near-term outlook across all mortgage types was “Mortgage rates are not favorable,” cited by two-thirds of lenders for conventional loans and slightly more than half of those for government loans – a survey high. The net share of lenders reporting growth expectations also fell. After three straight quarters of a positive profit margin outlook those expectations also hit a new survey low across all loan types “The survey captured lenders’ bearish sentiment…(read more)

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Fannie Lender Sentiment Survey Points to Rising Rate Fallout
Fannie Lender Sentiment Survey Points to Rising Rate Fallout
Mortgage
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Ginnie and FHA news; Pay Attention to Yield Curve and Fed Balance Sheet

Posted To: Pipeline Press

The cold temperatures sweeping the nation, especially in the Upper Plains, have plenty of folks wondering how Native Americans kept warm during the winter. They managed. But if you’d like to see what temperatures are anywhere in the nation, here’s a pretty nifty map . When do we head to Florida? HUD, VA, Ginnie Mae, and FHA news FHA issued a communication to notify its FHA-approved mortgagees that originate and service Title II forward mortgages of an error to ML 2016-20 2017 Nationwide Forward Mortgage Limits. It referenced an incorrect limit ceiling for Alaska, Hawaii, Guam, and the Virgin Islands, which are identified as “special exception areas” due to higher construction costs in these areas. It is important to note that while referenced incorrect limit ceiling for special…(read more)

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Ginnie and FHA news; Pay Attention to Yield Curve and Fed Balance Sheet
Ginnie and FHA news; Pay Attention to Yield Curve and Fed Balance Sheet
Mortgage
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