Construction Surges to Highest Levels in 15 Years; Rates Nearly Back to Early Jan Lows

Residential construction finished out 2020 much more strongly than analysts had expected. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported significant increases in both residential permitting and housing starts in December , the second month in a row those numbers have grown. The numbers, however, took a hit in the Northeast. Permits for privately funded construction were issued at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,709,000 units, an increase of 4.5 percent from the revised (from 1,639,000 units) rate of 1,635,000 in November. The pace of permitting in December was 17.3 percent higher than the 1,437,000 units estimated a year earlier. Econoday and Trading Economics had reported low expectations for December permits on the part of their analysts. The consensus
Construction Surges to Highest Levels in 15 Years; Rates Nearly Back to Early Jan Lows
Construction Surges to Highest Levels in 15 Years; Rates Nearly Back to Early Jan Lows

Mortgage Rates Almost Back to Early January Levels

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates made more progress today, but only after some drama in the morning. The bond market started the day in weaker territory and many mortgage lenders were offering higher rates as a result. As the day progressed, bonds improved and lenders adjusted their offerings accordingly. By the afternoon, the average lender was in better territory than yesterday. The improvement is the latest in a string of slow, steady gains for the mortgage market. While the average lender is not yet quite back to the super low territory from early January, many are as close as they’ve been since the January 6th rate spike following the Georgia senate election. Top tier purchase rates for conventional 30yr fixed loans are in the 2.5 to 2.75 neighborhood while top tier no-cash-out refis are about an eighth…(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Almost Back to Early January Levels
Mortgage Rates Almost Back to Early January Levels

MBS RECAP: Bonds Push Back Against AM Weakness, But Risks Remain

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds Push Back Against AM Weakness, But Risks Remain Yields were breaking higher as the domestic session began with traders citing the European Central Bank (ECB) as the primary source of motivation. The ECB changed its stance on one of its bond buying programs in a way that leaves the door open for less accommodation. ECB President Lagarde also offered a few relatively upbeat comments on inflation/growth potential. The losses aren't too threatening at face value, but they contribute to an ongoing inability on the part of 10yr yields to get below the 1.075% floor. Until that floor is broken, it suggests strong confirmation of the rising rate environment. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Jobless Claims 900k v 910k f'cast, 926k prev Housing…(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Push Back Against AM Weakness, But Risks Remain
MBS RECAP: Bonds Push Back Against AM Weakness, But Risks Remain

Construction Surges to Highest Levels in 15 Years

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Residential construction finished out 2020 much more strongly than analysts had expected. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported significant increases in both residential permitting and housing starts in December , the second month in a row those numbers have grown. The numbers, however, took a hit in the Northeast. Permits for privately funded construction were issued at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,709,000 units, an increase of 4.5 percent from the revised (from 1,639,000 units) rate of 1,635,000 in November. The pace of permitting in December was 17.3 percent higher than the 1,437,000 units estimated a year earlier. Econoday and Trading Economics had reported low expectations for December permits on the part of their analysts. The consensus…(read more)

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Construction Surges to Highest Levels in 15 Years
Construction Surges to Highest Levels in 15 Years

The Bond Report – 9am – January 21, 2021

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The Bond Report – 9am – January 21, 2021
The Bond Report – 9am – January 21, 2021

MBS Day Ahead: Defensive Shift is a Cause For Concern; Yields Struggling With an Important Floor

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The GA senate election shift is old news. It did the damage it was always likely to do, but bonds had a good show of support by the end of the following week. That made good enough sense considering the pandemic is driving the market and the pandemic can't be quickly defeated. But it's worth noting that the pandemic is also driving central bank policy, and when those policies are tweaked–even subtly–bonds can and will reac t. This morning's change to the ECB's PEPP is the latest example. If you didn't click the link above, the nutshell version is this: the European Central Bank made a subtle change to its pandemic relief bond buying program that COULD mean it will buy slightly less than the maximum amounts. When these programs are initially announced, markets account for…(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: Defensive Shift is a Cause For Concern; Yields Struggling With an Important Floor
MBS Day Ahead: Defensive Shift is a Cause For Concern; Yields Struggling With an Important Floor

Retail, Correspondent Jobs; Performance, Non-QM, Sales Tools; STRATMOR Strategy Paper; DACA and FHA

Posted To: MND NewsWire

“Do y’all remember, before the internet, that people thought the cause of stupidity was the lack of access to information? Yeah, it wasn’t that.” The internet has brought a lot of change to the world, and to our industry. But we don’t need the internet to drive changes, and potential changes, in our biz. HUD has declared that it will once again back DACA mortgages. Huntington’s Rob B. asks, “Is a CRA Mandate coming for independent mortgage banks (IMBs)?” (Prompting his question is the perception that President Biden will look for opportunities to boost homebuyers and builders . Of course, if there is little inventory, or land to build on, or people to build them…) CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger, who’s term would not have ended until 2023…(read more)

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Retail, Correspondent Jobs; Performance, Non-QM, Sales Tools; STRATMOR Strategy Paper; DACA and FHA
Retail, Correspondent Jobs; Performance, Non-QM, Sales Tools; STRATMOR Strategy Paper; DACA and FHA

Weekly jobless claims total 900,000, vs 925,000 estimate

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First-time claims for unemployment insurance were expected to total 925,000 for the week ended Jan. 16, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

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Weekly jobless claims total 900,000, vs 925,000 estimate
Weekly jobless claims total 900,000, vs 925,000 estimate

Mortgage Rates Making Steady Progress; DACA FHA Eligibility; Builders Lament Costly Materials

Mortgage rates are off to a decent start this week with the average lender offering slightly better terms compared to last Friday. The progress actually began earlier last week. On Tuesday morning, rates were at their highest levels in exactly 2 months after jumping at a relatively quick pace in response to the Georgia senate election. The underlying bond market was making an adjustment for a likely increase in Treasury issuance in the short term. There was no way to be sure how long that adjustment would last or how much it would impact rates. That uncertainty began to clear up on Tuesday as a scheduled auction of US Treasury debt was met with strong demand. After that, the tone in the bond market shifted for the better and we’ve seen additional examples of resilience. In general, when bonds
Mortgage Rates Making Steady Progress; DACA FHA Eligibility; Builders Lament Costly Materials
Mortgage Rates Making Steady Progress; DACA FHA Eligibility; Builders Lament Costly Materials

Mortgage Rates Making Steady Progress Over The Past Week

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates are off to a decent start this week with the average lender offering slightly better terms compared to last Friday. The progress actually began earlier last week. On Tuesday morning, rates were at their highest levels in exactly 2 months after jumping at a relatively quick pace in response to the Georgia senate election. The underlying bond market was making an adjustment for a likely increase in Treasury issuance in the short term. There was no way to be sure how long that adjustment would last or how much it would impact rates. That uncertainty began to clear up on Tuesday as a scheduled auction of US Treasury debt was met with strong demand. After that, the tone in the bond market shifted for the better and we’ve seen additional examples of resilience. In general, when bonds…(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Making Steady Progress Over The Past Week
Mortgage Rates Making Steady Progress Over The Past Week