Tax Changes May be Hurting Housing; Purchase Volume Improves; Rates at 1-Mo Highs

Mortgage rates continued higher for the 5th day in a row today. This brings the average lender to the highest levels in exactly one month. At issue: a series of stronger economic reports at home and abroad have eased concerns about global growth. Not only is a strong economy associated with higher rates in general, but those “concerns” were a big part of the Federal Reserve’s decision to be more bond-friendly back in March. With concerns arguably lessened by recent data, investors may be assuming the Fed won’t be quite as bond friendly going forward. All that having been said, the Fed is NOT likely to make any big changes after one solid month of global economic data. The most immediate cause for pressure toward higher rates came overnight in the form of Chinese economic data. Along with Europe
Tax Changes May be Hurting Housing; Purchase Volume Improves; Rates at 1-Mo Highs
Tax Changes May be Hurting Housing; Purchase Volume Improves; Rates at 1-Mo Highs

MBS RECAP: Bonds Battle Back After Opening Weakness

Posted To: MBS Commentary

As feared, bonds were gearing up for the raft of big-ticket economic data in China overnight. On balance, that data was quite a bit better than expected. The resulting selling spree was thus fairly logical. 10yr yields nearly hit 2.62% before it was over. It definitely could have been worse. I think part of the resilience is explained by the extent to which bonds have moved to price-in economic stability (or even a rebound) in China. Such a thing would definitely be worth higher yields at home, and the last week of Chinese data keeps the risk on the table. There wasn't really a big enough reason to justify the size of Friday's bond sell-off. Combine that with today's sell-off seemingly being too light and we come to the conclusion that it's been one big move leading up to today…(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Battle Back After Opening Weakness
MBS RECAP: Bonds Battle Back After Opening Weakness

Mortgage Rates Quickly Find Themselves at 1 Month Highs

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates continued higher for the 5th day in a row today. This brings the average lender to the highest levels in exactly one month. At issue: a series of stronger economic reports at home and abroad have eased concerns about global growth. Not only is a strong economy associated with higher rates in general, but those “concerns” were a big part of the Federal Reserve’s decision to be more bond-friendly back in March. With concerns arguably lessened by recent data, investors may be assuming the Fed won’t be quite as bond friendly going forward. All that having been said, the Fed is NOT likely to make any big changes after one solid month of global economic data. The most immediate cause for pressure toward higher rates came overnight in the form of Chinese economic data. Along with Europe…(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Quickly Find Themselves at 1 Month Highs
Mortgage Rates Quickly Find Themselves at 1 Month Highs

GDP tracking at 2.1%

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CNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the latest GDP projections. With CNBC's Scott Cohn and the FMHR traders, Pete Najarian, Joe Terranova, Jim Lebenthal and Meghan Shue.

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GDP tracking at 2.1%
GDP tracking at 2.1%

February wholesale inventories up 0.2%

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CNBC's Rick Santelli reports on new February wholesale and trade data as the first round of earnings for 2019 kicks off.

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February wholesale inventories up 0.2%
February wholesale inventories up 0.2%

China GDP: what to watch

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Patrick Palfrey, Credit Suisse Senior Equity Strategist, and Patrick Schaffer, J.P. Morgan Private Bank Global Investment Specialist & Executive Director, talk about the latest China data, emerging markets, and the global economy

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China GDP: what to watch
China GDP: what to watch

New Tax Rules May Have Added to Housing Slowdown

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Two New York Federal Reserve Bank economists are asking whether the tax reform act that went into effect at the beginning of 2018 is playing a role in the decline of home sales. Richard Peach and Casey McQuillan, writing in Liberty Street Economics , say that the broad-based slowing in housing market activity coincided with a roughly 70 basis point rise , from 3.9 percent to 4.6 percent, in the thirty-year fixed-rate mortgage. During the period in which rates were increasing, from the fourth quarter of 2017 to the third quarter of 2018, new home sales declined 7.6 percent and sales of existing homes dropped 4.6 percent. The two point out, however, that those declines in sales were larger than in the two previous periods of significant rate increases. They theorize that provisions in the Tax…(read more)

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New Tax Rules May Have Added to Housing Slowdown
New Tax Rules May Have Added to Housing Slowdown

February trade deficit is lightest since June 2018

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CNBC's Rick Santelli reports on the February trade deficit numbers. It's the lightest it has been since June 2018.

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February trade deficit is lightest since June 2018
February trade deficit is lightest since June 2018

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Successfully Predict Chinese Rebound

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Over the years, there have been more times than I can count where the financial media has mistakenly assigned some significance to news or events in China. The past week has had its moments in that regard, but this time around, the Chinese economy is undoubtedly in play as a market mover. Either that, or it's being used as cover for traders to strategically back-fill the post-Fed rally that begin on March 20th–something that was ultimately accomplished this morning. Overnight economic data in China was this week's focus in terms of potential market movers. Chinese GDP came out at 6.4 vs 6.3 forecast (6.4 previously). Industrial output rose by 8.5% versus a 5.9% forecast. And Retail Sales ticked up to 8.7% from 8.2%. All of the above data points were released at 10pm ET, and had obvious…(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Successfully Predict Chinese Rebound
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Successfully Predict Chinese Rebound

Non-QM Products; Mortgage Mergers Roll On; QE Still Influencing Rates – a Primer

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Economic doldrums? Probably not – but there is always someone out there claiming dire straits are right around the corner. A CNBC survey of Wall Street experts finds over 96% do not anticipate a recession by summer 2020, 70% are optimistic about the economy, and 30% have a neutral outlook. Fitch Ratings said there are no signs of recession currently but noted that global growth was sharply deteriorating. Fitch sees relatively strong US GDP growth as a positive and expects China will start stabilizing soon. And a survey of economists by the Wall Street Journal found that 57% thought the next rate increase by the Fed wouldn’t happen until September or later. This number is up from 35% in the February survey and 13% in the January survey. Overall, 18% of economists believe the Fed will not…(read more)

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Non-QM Products; Mortgage Mergers Roll On; QE Still Influencing Rates – a Primer
Non-QM Products; Mortgage Mergers Roll On; QE Still Influencing Rates – a Primer