MBS RECAP: Limited Reaction to Headlines and Fed Minutes

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Limited Reaction to Headlines and Fed Minutes After a quiet trading day yesterday, today proved to be even quieter. That said, bonds were still willing to react to covid headlines and the Fed meeting minutes, albeit just barely enough to notice. Econ Data / Events 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) – Fed 30yr UMBS Buying ADP Employment 2.369m vs 3m f'cast , +3.065m prev (revised up from -2.76m) ISM Manufacturing: 52.6 vs 49.5 f'cast , 43.1 prev Construction Spending: -2.1 vs +1.0 f'cast , -3.5 prev Market Movement Recap 08:36 AM Bonds were weaker right out of the gate in the Asian trading session, but only moderately. They've been essentially flat since then with 10yr yields up 2-3bps on the day, currently trading at .686%. MBS are outperforming again, with prices currently up 1 tick (0.03…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.


MBS RECAP: Limited Reaction to Headlines and Fed Minutes
MBS RECAP: Limited Reaction to Headlines and Fed Minutes

Fed Meeting Minute Bullet Points: What's Yield Curve Control?

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The minutes from the most recent Fed meeting were released today. While there's not much left to be said when they've already been so clear about keeping rates low for a long time, we did get a few new thoughts about "yield curve control." That would basically entail the Fed buying whatever it takes to keep longer term rates within a certain range compared to the short-term rates it already effectively controls through the Fed Funds Rate. To be clear, the Fed doesn't control 2yr Treasury yields, but by keeping the Fed Funds Rate at zero, it greatly limits the extent to which 2yr yields can rise. Case in point, after trading in the 1-2% range in the 2nd half of 2019, 2yr yields have been under 0.30% since the end of March, and generally trading a very flat range. 10yr yields…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.


Fed Meeting Minute Bullet Points: What's Yield Curve Control?
Fed Meeting Minute Bullet Points: What's Yield Curve Control?

Some unintentional consequences with Fed holding rates artificially low: Angel Oak's Navid Abghari

(Please visit the site to view this media)

Navid Abghari, senior portfolio manager at Angel Oak Capital Advisors, and Tom Porcelli, U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting and what it means for the market.

…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.


Some unintentional consequences with Fed holding rates artificially low: Angel Oak's Navid Abghari
Some unintentional consequences with Fed holding rates artificially low: Angel Oak's Navid Abghari

Lawrence Lindsey: There's enormous pent-up demand in the U.S. economy

(Please visit the site to view this media)

CNBC's Kelly Evans is joined by Larry Lindsey of The Lindsey Group to break down the shape of recovery and what he predicts for the 2020 Presidential Election.

…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.


Lawrence Lindsey: There's enormous pent-up demand in the U.S. economy
Lawrence Lindsey: There's enormous pent-up demand in the U.S. economy

ISM manufacturing index higher than expected at 52.6

(Please visit the site to view this media)

CNBC's Rick Santelli reports on the latest round of economic data as Q3 begins.

…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.


ISM manufacturing index higher than expected at 52.6
ISM manufacturing index higher than expected at 52.6

Private payrolls rise 2.37 million in June, ADP reports

(Please visit the site to view this media)

Private payrolls rose by 2.369 million in June, a bit below the 2.5 million estimate from economists surveyed by Dow Jones, according to ADP. CNBC's Steve Liesman reports.

…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.


Private payrolls rise 2.37 million in June, ADP reports
Private payrolls rise 2.37 million in June, ADP reports

MBS Day Ahead: Economic Data Ramps Up Ahead of Week's Early Close

Posted To: MBS Commentary

After a very slow start on Monday, yesterday's month-end trading session proved to be more consequential for Treasuries with yields ultimately rising enough to make it back to the doorstep of the uptrend they'd broken out of only 2 days prior. A picture is worth more than a sentence in that regard. So is the new rally now over, and are we doomed to watch rates move steadily higher? Wouldn't you like to know! Wouldn't everyone like to know, in fact, because knowing the answers to such questions would mean knowing how the coronavirus situation would play out in the near future. That's been the key market mover on any given day, with very few exceptions. When exceptions have been made, they were for things like Fed policy and big ticket economic data. The ADP employment report…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.


MBS Day Ahead: Economic Data Ramps Up Ahead of Week's Early Close
MBS Day Ahead: Economic Data Ramps Up Ahead of Week's Early Close

Mortgage applications fall for second straight week

(Please visit the site to view this media)

CNBC's Diana Olick reports the latest housing data amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.


Mortgage applications fall for second straight week
Mortgage applications fall for second straight week

Purchase Apps Retreat Again as Inventory Dries Up

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Applications for both refinancing and purchase mortgages retreated last week , pulling the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA’s) Market Composite Index lower for the second time in as many weeks. MBA said the index, a measure of application volume, declined by 1.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ended June 26 and was down 2.0 percent on an unadjusted basis. While the Refinance Index ticked down 2 percent from the week ended June 19, low interest rates kept the refinancing volume 74 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 61.2 percent of total applications from 61.3 percent the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index dipped 1 percent and the unadjusted version was down 2 percent compared with the…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.


Purchase Apps Retreat Again as Inventory Dries Up
Purchase Apps Retreat Again as Inventory Dries Up

Home Prices "Remarkably Stable" in April; Record Month For Rates

Home prices continued to hold up on a national basis in April. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.7 percent annual gain in April, up from 4.6 percent in March. The National Index posted a 1.1 percent month-over-month increase before seasonal adjustment and an 0.5 percent gain after it. The 10-City Composite appreciated at an annual rate of 3.4 percent, unchanged from the March rate while the 20-City Composite’s annual increase rose to 4.0 percent from 3.9 percent the previous month. The 10-City and 20-City measures had monthly increases of 0.7 percent and 0.9 percent respectively before seasonal adjustment and both posted 0.3 percent increases after adjustment. In April, all 19 cities (excluding Detroit for
Home Prices "Remarkably Stable" in April; Record Month For Rates
Home Prices "Remarkably Stable" in April; Record Month For Rates