MBS Day Ahead: This Is The Shift. Now It's About Time and Scope

Posted To: MBS Commentary

For virtually all of 2021 (and much of Q4 2020), we've been tracking an uptrend in Treasury yields. As the overall move grew to a size rarely seen in the past few decades, we were increasingly eager to see a token correction for technical reasons (i.e. selling sprees can hibernate or straight up die of old age). The anticipation peaked with a terrible month-end in March and hopes for a better month as April started strong. So far, April has delivered on 100% of its promise to be a better month. It would only have taken 2-3 weeks of sideways-to-slightly-stronger momentum in bonds to classify the move as the corrective consolidation we were looking for. That much is a done deal. Now we can move on to asking the next series of questions about our newfound resilience. Questions: 1. How much…(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: This Is The Shift. Now It's About Time and Scope
MBS Day Ahead: This Is The Shift. Now It's About Time and Scope

March housing starts surged 19.4%, vs 14% increase expected

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The Commerce Department said March housing starts surged 19.4%, beating estimates. Building permits gained 2.7%, falling short of expectations. CNBC's Rick Santelli and Diana Olick break down the data.

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March housing starts surged 19.4%, vs 14% increase expected
March housing starts surged 19.4%, vs 14% increase expected

Dip in 10-year Treasury yield seems to be technically driven, strategist says

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The Dow closed at a new all-time high Thursday at the same time interest rates fell. Gabriela Santos, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, and Jake Walthour, CEO and co-founder of Blueprint Capital Advisors, joined "Squawk Box" on Friday to discuss whether it's time for investors to rotate.

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Dip in 10-year Treasury yield seems to be technically driven, strategist says
Dip in 10-year Treasury yield seems to be technically driven, strategist says

Lowest Rates in Weeks; Buyer Demand Provides Modest Boost to Builder Confidence

New home builders seem to be slowly getting their mojo back. After recovering from the hit they took in the first days of the pandemic, they encountered labor shortages, supply chain issues, and rising material costs. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said that builder confidence in the new home market, driven by strong buyer demand, ticked up slightly this month with the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) rising 1 point to 83. It is still down by 7 points from the all-time high it reached in November. Robert Dietz, NAHB’s chief economist, said builders continue to face challenges in order to add much needed new homes to the market. While mortgage interest rates have trended higher since February and home prices continue to outstrip inflation, housing demand appears
Lowest Rates in Weeks; Buyer Demand Provides Modest Boost to Builder Confidence
Lowest Rates in Weeks; Buyer Demand Provides Modest Boost to Builder Confidence

Mortgage Rates Falling Quickly to Lowest Levels in Weeks

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

It’s no secret that mortgage rates had a rough month in March and a rough year in general. The average lender raised 30yr fixed rates by roughly half a percent in February and March alone. But April has proven to be an entirely different sort of month so far. In the past 2 weeks, rates are down nearly a quarter of a point on average. Today played a critical role in the improvement as lenders responded in waves to an exceptionally strong day for the underlying bond market (bonds are the primary driver of day-to-day rate fluctuations). One of the most interesting things about today’s move was that the bond market improved AFTER a slew of significantly stronger economic data. That’s interesting because the quintessential reaction function in the bond market is exactly the opposite! In other words…(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Falling Quickly to Lowest Levels in Weeks
Mortgage Rates Falling Quickly to Lowest Levels in Weeks

Brokers warn that Florida real estate market is overheated

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CNBC's Robert Frank reports on how the real estate market in Florida could be signaling a possible slowdown as supply fails to meet the demand for houses.

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Brokers warn that Florida real estate market is overheated
Brokers warn that Florida real estate market is overheated

Estimated tax payments are still due on April 15: IRS

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CNBC's Sharon Epperson breaks down how tax day has been extended and what that means for taxpayers.

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Estimated tax payments are still due on April 15: IRS
Estimated tax payments are still due on April 15: IRS

MBS RECAP: Snowball Rally For Bonds! Why? And What Next?

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Snowball Rally For Bonds! Why? And What Next? Heading into today, we expected the bond market to ignore potentially stronger Retail Sales data. Not only did bonds overlook the big beat (9.8 vs 5.9 f'cast), but they actually rallied in response. This was made all the more remarkable by the presence of 3 other better-than-expected economic reports that came out at the same time. Bonds went on to experience a full-fledged snowball rally. In today's huddle, we'll talk about what that means, what's behind it, and what might be next. Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm Retail Sales 9.8 vs 5.9 f'cast, -2.7 prev Jobless Claims 576k vs 700k f'cast, 769 prev Empire State Manufacturing 26.3 vs 19.5 f'cast Philly Fed 50.2 vs 42.0 f'cast, 51.8 prev Industrial…(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Snowball Rally For Bonds! Why? And What Next?
MBS RECAP: Snowball Rally For Bonds! Why? And What Next?

CNBC's All-America Economic Survey: Respondents split on whether now's the time to invest

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CNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the results from CNBC's All-America Economic Survey and whether now is a good or bad time to invest.

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CNBC's All-America Economic Survey: Respondents split on whether now's the time to invest
CNBC's All-America Economic Survey: Respondents split on whether now's the time to invest

Stocks rise after Big Banks release strong quarterly earnings

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U.S. stocks climbed to record levels on Thursday after Big Banks reported strong earnings. Shares of Citigroup climbed 2 percent after the bank posted results that beat analysts' estimates for first-quarter profit. Bank of America shares rose as earnings last quarter blew past the Street on booming trading and investment banking results as well the release of loan-loss reserves. Here's what experts are watching now.

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Stocks rise after Big Banks release strong quarterly earnings
Stocks rise after Big Banks release strong quarterly earnings