Foreclosure Inventory Near 10yr Low; New Home Sales Rise, Prices "Toppy"; Rates Drift Lower; Holiday Effect on Markets

There was a slight uptick in a couple of housing distress measures in November, but the general trend continues down. Still, as Black Knight Financial Services notes in its monthly “first look” at mortgage performance data “Annual improvement in mortgage delinquency rates is beginning to slow as [the] market ‘normalizes’.” The company also says pre-payment activity remains strong for now as applications made prior to the rise in interest rates continue to close. Foreclosures, foreclosure starts and delinquency rates all ticked up from October levels. The 60,400 starts represented an increase of 6.9 percent from the previous month but were 9.31 percent below starts in November 2015 and still near a 10-year low. The 30+-day delinquency rate was 4.46 percent in November, a 2.55 percent change
Foreclosure Inventory Near 10yr Low; New Home Sales Rise, Prices "Toppy"; Rates Drift Lower; Holiday Effect on Markets
Foreclosure Inventory Near 10yr Low; New Home Sales Rise, Prices "Toppy"; Rates Drift Lower; Holiday Effect on Markets

Mortgage Rates Drift Lower Ahead of Extended Weekend

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates made their biggest move of the week today, although the competition wasn’t very stiff, considering yesterday’s microscopic improvement was the first noticeable change. Today’s improvement was certainly bigger, but still microscopic by normal standards. Few, if any lenders will be quoting lower “contract rates” today. The gains would instead be seen in the form of slightly lower closing costs. As for the contract rates themselves, 4.375% remains the most prevalent conventional 30yr fixed quote for top tier scenarios. Several lenders still up at 4.5% and a few are down at 4.25%. Barring the unforeseen, lenders will have little incentive to make meaningful adjustments to rates between now and the end of the year, thus decreasing the risk and reward associated with a “lock vs float…(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Drift Lower Ahead of Extended Weekend
Mortgage Rates Drift Lower Ahead of Extended Weekend

MBS RECAP: The Holiday Effect is Real

Posted To: MBS Commentary

As expected, bonds did nothing today , apart from a possibly detectable response to the inflation-expectation components of the Consumer Sentiment data. Inflation expectations are indeed something the Fed considers when it comes to the rate hike outlook, and if consumers are expecting lower prices, it doesn't make a strong case for increasingly aggressive hikes. All that having been said, there really wasn't much of a measurable response, and bonds are ending the holiday-shortened week in substantially similar fashion to last week, holding a narrow range around the same trading levels. In anatomical terms, late December is like a superfluous appendix, or the average wisdom tooth: it's OK to have, but you shouldn't think twice about throwing it out if it causes you any trouble…(read more)

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MBS RECAP: The Holiday Effect is Real
MBS RECAP: The Holiday Effect is Real

Markets feel a lot like 1980: Pro

[View:http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000578763&__source=mnd|news|video|&par=mnd]

Peter Boockvar, The Lindsey Group, and Hans Olsen, Stifel Wealth & Investment Management, talk about regulations and market valuations. The market is pricing to perfection and Trump hasn't come up against K Street yet, says Olsen.

…(read more)

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Markets feel a lot like 1980: Pro
Markets feel a lot like 1980: Pro

November new home sales up 5.2%

[View:http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000578802&__source=mnd|news|video|&par=mnd]

CNBC's Rick Santelli reports the latest data out for new home sales in November and consumer sentiment.

…(read more)

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November new home sales up 5.2%
November new home sales up 5.2%

Foreclosure Inventory Below 500k for 1st Time in Nearly 10 Years

Posted To: MND NewsWire

There was a slight uptick in a couple of housing distress measures in November, but the general trend continues down. Still, as Black Knight Financial Services notes in its monthly “first look” at mortgage performance data “Annual improvement in mortgage delinquency rates is beginning to slow as [the] market ‘normalizes’.” The company also says pre-payment activity remains strong for now as applications made prior to the rise in interest rates continue to close. Foreclosures, foreclosure starts and delinquency rates all ticked up from October levels. The 60,400 starts represented an increase of 6.9 percent from the previous month but were 9.31 percent below starts in November 2015 and still near a 10-year low. The 30+-day delinquency rate was 4.46 percent in November, a 2.55 percent change…(read more)

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Foreclosure Inventory Below 500k for 1st Time in Nearly 10 Years
Foreclosure Inventory Below 500k for 1st Time in Nearly 10 Years

New Home Sales Rise, but Prices Looking "Toppy"

Posted To: MND NewsWire

New home sales continued their recent pattern of advancing and retreating in alternate months. The Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development said that sales of newly constructed homes were on the offense in November, rising 5.2 percent after a 1.9 percent loss in October. Sales were estimated at an annual rate of 592,000 units compared to a rate of 563,000 the previous month. The sales report said the October number was revised, but the revision was apparently lost in rounding. Sales continued to outstrip those during the same month in 2015. The recent number was up 16.5 percent from the estimated sales of 508,000 a year earlier. Analysts had expected November sales to improve on October’s, but they undershot the mark. A poll by Econoday found a consensus of 580,000 units…(read more)

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New Home Sales Rise, but Prices Looking "Toppy"
New Home Sales Rise, but Prices Looking "Toppy"

Compliance and Regulatory Trends; DOJ Wishes Barclays a Merry Christmas

Posted To: Pipeline Press

We’ve passed the Winter Solstice, and we can look forward to more daylight in the Northern Hemisphere from here on out. (Good news for readers in Fairbanks, AK, where the sun now sets at 2:40 in the afternoon.) The amount of daylight isn’t the only thing changing. Any lender whose entire 2015 or 2016 profitability was based on rate and term refis is certainly concerned. For other companies, changes in the marketplace represent opportunities . It will be an interesting first quarter for change. Rumors are swirling, hiring freezes are already in place at some well-known lenders, and M&A is already alive and well. For example, the National Credit Union Administration approved 18 credit union mergers in November, according to the agency’s latest Insurance Report of Activity . Meanwhile…(read more)

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Compliance and Regulatory Trends; DOJ Wishes Barclays a Merry Christmas
Compliance and Regulatory Trends; DOJ Wishes Barclays a Merry Christmas

MBS Day Ahead: Early Close Today and Fully Closed on Monday

Posted To: MBS Commentary

NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my venue to offer deep thoughts with a mix of big-picture and near-term technical considerations. I'll still be doing that, but in posts on MBS Live and under the 'General Commentary' heading (which still shows up on MND for free, but delayed). The Day Ahead will quickly evolve into a more cut and dried run-down of the events of the day (as it should be). Some days are more interesting than others, so some posts will be almost comically short, depending on the slate of events. It will still contain charts from time to time, but generally just to lay out technical levels we should be watching. — Markets will close early today (2pm ET…(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: Early Close Today and Fully Closed on Monday
MBS Day Ahead: Early Close Today and Fully Closed on Monday

2016 a Great Year for Housing, 2017 a Wild Card; Cash Sales May Be Leveling Off; Calmest Week For Rates

This year, with less than two weeks left to go, is shaping up to be the best year for housing in a decade according to Freddie Mac’s Economic & Housing Research Group. Their year-end wrap up and forecast however, sees a more mixed picture for 2017. This year saw home sales through November at the highest level since 2007 and construction, as measured by housing starts, were at the fastest pace since 2008. Home prices finally erased all of the losses experienced during the downturn. Economic growth appears to be accelerating in the latter half of 2016 and the labor market remains at full employment, but rising interest rates threaten to slow and possibly turn back housing’s momentum. The group restates its belief expressed in November that housing will stall a bit in 2017 as higher rates
2016 a Great Year for Housing, 2017 a Wild Card; Cash Sales May Be Leveling Off; Calmest Week For Rates
2016 a Great Year for Housing, 2017 a Wild Card; Cash Sales May Be Leveling Off; Calmest Week For Rates