MBS Day Ahead: Fed Day! What's at Stake? (Hypothetical Dot Plot Included)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

There are 8 Fed announcements per year (barring emergencies). Today's announcement is one of the 4 that include updated economic projections (the "dots" are part of that). While the Fed downplays the dots, markets tend to have more volatile reactions. Major policy decisions are definitely on hold for now, so markets will be left to read the tea leaves from minor verbiage changes in the announcement, Powell's press conference, and of course, the dots. The net effect could certainly be relevant, with a move back up toward the previous range (red lines in chart below), or an extension of the recent run toward early 2021's low yields (green lines in the chart). To be clear, today would only be the catalyst for beginning of such moves. There are only 3 hours of trading following…(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: Fed Day! What's at Stake? (Hypothetical Dot Plot Included)
MBS Day Ahead: Fed Day! What's at Stake? (Hypothetical Dot Plot Included)

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