MBS Morning: The Breakout is Here. What Now?

Posted To: MBS Commentary

As early as 4 months ago, we'd been eyeing late September as do or die time for the low rate environment. By early September, we had a very clear picture of the consolidation pattern in rates and very clear notion of this week's Fed announcement serving to inform the inevitable breakout. Now 2 days later, the breakout is here. The implication is bad for rates, but vaguely so. Fed tapering isn't the big deal it was in the past. Rather, it's a combination of other factors that led to the technical break. Chief among these in a general sense is the ongoing drop in week-over-week covid case counts and/or hospitalizations. From here, rates could merely drift higher at a leisurely pace, or they could accelerate in a more abrupt way. It all depends on how those "other factors"…(read more)

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MBS Morning: The Breakout is Here. What Now?
MBS Morning: The Breakout is Here. What Now?

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