MBS Morning: With 1 Day Left, Pre-Fed Range Remains Intact

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Trading ranges and consolidation patterns can make for tedious discussion when they're well-behaved for weeks on end. We began discussing the current example in mid-August when the 1.38% ceiling was first rejected. The following week suggested it was less of a "range" and more of a consolidation pattern–a theme that dominated the analysis ever since. Despite a valiant attempt after last week's CPI data and yesterday's snowball risk-off rally (thanks Evergrande?), today begins with yields safely inside the same old range. Barring another unexpected mini-shock, we're left with the same conclusion as in recent weeks: a true range breakout remains most likely after tomorrow's Fed announcement. The following charts are included just for kicks this morning. They show…(read more)

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MBS Morning: With 1 Day Left, Pre-Fed Range Remains Intact
MBS Morning: With 1 Day Left, Pre-Fed Range Remains Intact

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